Why Unpredictability is Big Business?




"Your entire future reaches you one day at a time."


If there is one thing that is directly proportional to unpredictability, then it would be fear. And if there is one thing that demonstrates fear among the masses, then it would be the Capital Market Sentiment. A market crash is nothing but the reflection of fear inflicted in the investor's mind due to the unpredictable future they foresee.


The world market collapsed with the advent of the Corona Virus. Nobody knew what to anticipate and how long things would be bad. The virus started getting bad, and people began to die across the globe. The whole science community were working on war footing to find a cure.


Although the cure was a distant dream, more information about the virus and its way of functioning started to spread out. Interestingly the corona was still there, and the first peak was yet to get established, but the market began to recover. The recovery was perhaps the sharpest one could have ever witnessed in history.


Now, let's get to the more exciting aspect, the second wave. The second wave was more devastating, and unfortunately, it attacked even the young population, which was not the case in the first wave. Lockdown got implemented across the world just like the first wave, but it was interesting that the market never lost its ground. It went higher and higher. Some say it's the courtesy of, vaccination but I would say that the virus, just like numerous other factors, became predictable to people.


Fear would always be about the unknown. The Coronavirus is no more a fear, at least to the relentless Indian Capital Market. I am sure there is a lot to attribute to this Nifty splurge which is beyond the scope of this blog.


"Humans are pattern-seeking story-telling animals, and we are quite adept at telling stories about patterns, whether they exist or not." ― Michael Shermer


Scientists and Astrologers


"You can't connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something – your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life."- Steve Jobs




Unlike most of us who are paid for what we know, scientists get paid to think about what they don't know. They research to arrive at something which never existed in the first place. If someone has to ask the right question, then it would be, why are they even needed in the first place? Humankind wants to ensure that their future is secure to arrive at something to fight the unknown that might come later.



Well, science is not enough for everything. We do need astrologers as well to ascertain that our future is on the right track. Some astrologers believe their work is based on planetary positions, and therefore there is science involved in their work. Like a parrot picking a card, some believe nature's pattern is in sync with a person's future. All said and done; these astrologers make a living out of one's insecurity about the future. They not just foresee a future but have redemption strategies in case of any shortcomings foreseen in the future.


So technically, as long as humanity survives and their fear resides within him about his future, these two professions will never go out of business.


If one thinks the fear is only for the individuals, then trust me, companies fear more. They hire business consultants and pay them heavily to make sure they never go out of business in the future. It's a different story that some of these CEO's utilise the services of the astrologers too.


"Nobody wants a prediction that the future will be more or less like the present, even if that is, statistically speaking, an excellent prediction." ~ Nathan Myhrvold



The Market Forecasters


"Trying to predict the future is like trying to drive down a country road at night with no lights while looking out the back window." ~ Peter Drucker



Whenever I witness the so-called market experts on the television, I tend to remember my finance professor during my MBA days. He was a person who took his job pretty seriously. He had this notion of making simple things grander, and we end up more confused than convinced at the end of the class.


The so-called jargons make them sound intelligent. The utility of the term profit booking instead of market fall gives a clear picture of the sophistication of the subject they are brood into.